Ukraine crisis creating 'worst case scenario' for Polish economy

Janusz Piechocinski. Photo: Polish Radio

“Three weeks ago I said I was convinced that the Polish economy would have a minimum GDP increase of 3.1 to 3.2 percent, and that we would maintain a 6 percent growth in our increasingly wide network of exports,” Piechocinski told Polish Radio.

“But I had said that everything depends on what happens in the east,” he stressed.

“And the worst case scenario for the Polish economy is now occurring.”

In 2013, about 14 percent of Polish exports were to the Russian Federation, and 5 percent were to Ukraine, together representing a fifth of Polish exports.

Piechocinski argued that “the Ukrainian problem is increasingly revealing the destabilisation of the Post-Soviet east [including Belarus]... with which we had excellent economic relations last year, and a very high growth rate.

“There was a huge amount of activity of Polish firms there, and not just in Ukraine – close to 15,000 Polish companies exported something [to the region] last year.”

Pork embargo

Piechocinski noted that Russia and Belarus's embargo on Polish (and EU) pork products in connection with ann outbreak of African Swine Fever only serves to worsen the problem.

Two dead wild boar that had succumbed to the virus were found near the Polish border with Belarus last month (another infected boar was found in Lithuania, near the Belarusian border.)

Piechochinski claimed that “huge diplomatic efforts” are being made to break the embargo.

He added that Minister of Agriculture Stanislaw Kalemba is pursuing the possibility of compensation for Polish farmers but that this process “will of course last a while.” (nh)